Throwing Out the Baby with the Bath Water: A Comment on Green, Kim, and Yoon
نویسندگان
چکیده
Donald P. Green, Soo Yeon Kim, and David H. Yoon contribute to the literature on estimating pooled times-series cross-section models in international relations (IR). They argue that such models should be estimated with fixed effects when such effects are statistically necessary. While we obviously have no disagreement that sometimes fixed effects are appropriate, we show here that they are pernicious for IR time-series cross-section models with a binary dependent variable and that they are often problematic for IR models with a continuous dependent variable. In the binary case, this perniciousness is the result of many pairs of nations always being scored zero and hence having no impact on the parameter estimates; for example, many dyads never come into conflict. In the continuous case, fixed effects are problematic in the presence of the temporally stable regressors that are common IR applications, such as the dyadic democracy measures used by Green, Kim, and Yoon. We focus here on what we feel are the critical defects of Green, Kim, and Yoon's fixed-effects approach for modeling typical IR applications. Since our response is critical, we do stress that sometimes fixed effects make sense for time-series cross-section data, although probably not for binary time-series cross-section data. Like Green, Kim, and Yoon, we believe it is always better to account for dyadic differences with theoretical variables, but this may not always be possible. Thus sometimes fixed effects are appropriate, but of course no one should be content to "explain" American-British trade by a dummy variable that corresponds to the dyadic name. Further, we agree with Green, Kim, and Yoon that ignoring unmodeled heterogeneity, that is, dyadic differences that are not captured by the indepen-
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